Incorporating textual information in customer churn prediction models based on a convolutional neural network

This study investigates the value added by incorporating textual data into customer churn prediction (CCP) models. It extends the previous literature by benchmarking convolutional neural networks (CNNs) against current best practices for analyzing textual data in CCP, and, using real life data from a European financial services provider, validates a framework that explains how textual data can be incorporated in a predictive model. First, the results confirm previous research showing that the inclusion of textual data in a CCP model improves its predictive performance. Second, CNNs outperform current best practices for text mining in CCP. Third, textual data are an important source of data for CCP, but unstructured textual data alone cannot create churn prediction models that are competitive with models that use traditional structured data. A calculation of the additional profit obtained from a customer retention campaign through the inclusion of textual information can be used by practitioners directly to help them make more informed decisions on whether to invest in text mining.     

Cultural distance and international trade in services: A disaggregate view

In this paper, we estimate the effect of “cultural distance” on bilateral trade in services. The measure of cultural distance we use is based on scores that reflect country averages of individuals’ attitudes towards inequality, self-orientation, competition, uncertainty, traditions, and indulgence. Controlling for standard ingredients of gravity equations, we show that an aggregate measure of cultural distance has a significantly negative effect on total bilateral services trade. Once we take a more disaggregate view, we find that the strength of this effect differs across various types of services and various aspects of cultural distance.     

关键驱动力作用下的新疆生态系统服务时空格局分析

[目的]恶劣的生态环境和有限的资源驱动着新疆特殊生态系统服务的形成,人类又通过对生态系统服务的消费来满足和提高自身福祉,需要研究其时空变化并辨识主要驱动因素,支持区域可持续发展。[方法]文章构建了融合不同土地利用类型生态系统服务的价值量排序及服务功能强度矩阵的生态系统服务评估体系,并耦合3种关键驱动因子以评估各个因子的驱动强度,实现对生态系统服务热点与冷点变化的驱动及迁移分析。[结果]2000—2010年全疆生态系统服务总体增加,这一时期生态系统服务的热点区大部分转变为2010—2015年的冷点区,且15年来生态系统服务总体呈现小幅下降趋势。3个时期北疆和南疆人为干扰强度均呈增加趋势,由其驱动的生态系统服务则相应减小;南疆地区植被覆盖范围极其有限,故对生态系统服务驱动强度低;降水在北疆和南疆都能够产生高生态系统服务,但降水量的不稳定性能够使生态系统服务产生较大波动。相比于南疆地区,北疆生态系统在外界干扰下能够体现出更强的抗性和整体性,从而实现相对高效的生态系统服务输出。[结论]对关键驱动因子作用下的生态系统服务进行时空变化分析,有助于理解当地生态系统产生变化的原因,从而为当地生态环境保护提供参考。     

A ‘panoptical’ or ‘synoptical’ approach to monitoring performance? Local public services in England and the widening accountability gap

This article highlights how recent reforms to the auditing and assessment of local public services in England suggest there will be a shift from panoptical to ‘synoptical’ monitoring approaches. This is because the UK Government has abolished its centralised monitoring regime and instead required local authorities to publish a range of financial and performance datasets online, ostensibly so that citizens can hold organisations to account directly. However, the complexity and raw nature of these data, along with the sidelining of professional auditors, will result in most citizens being either unable or unwilling to undertake this task. As such, the proposed ‘synoptical’ approach will not materialise. Indeed, other legislative changes will mean that outsourcing firms effectively become the new, unaccountable observers of local public sector bodies within an enduring panoptical system. In many cases these companies will then assume responsibility for delivering the same services that they have assessed.     

An empirical analysis of multiple services and choices of consumer in the Swedish telecommunications market

Received analyses state that firms can use a multiple services offering strategy to retain customers and capture new customers. Factors that determine the multiple services strategy include product discount, service provider and customer characteristics. Consequently, this study addresses the fundamental question: what are the key determining factors that explain the probability that a consumer buys multiple services? A generalized Poisson regression model is employed to examine whether the product discount, service provider, socio-economic variables and geographical location impact consumer decisions. Data from a national survey in 2009 commissioned by Post-och Telestyrelsen, the Swedish telecommunications regulator, are analyzed. The results clearly show that the discount, service provider and income of the consumer affect the consumer׳s buying decision. A consumer who receives a discount or has a high income is more likely to buy multiple services or select more services from the current service provider into his basket than a consumer who does not receive discount or has lower income. Service providers, cable TV operators and telecommunications carriers can also lock-in their consumer and expand their market position from one particular service to another using bundling service. Thus, this may be the time for the telecommunications regulator to consider the market definition.     

Collaborative approaches to public sector innovation: A scoping study

In the last 15 years, European countries have invested considerable resources to provide e-government services. Despite of its increasing availability, its level of adoption has not been satisfying. On the other hand, over the last years, coinciding with the web 2.0 trend, the e-government services co-produced by citizens start to appear, often without the support, acknowledgement and even awareness of the government. This trend stems from a well-established tradition of offline co- production of public services, i.e. services provided by the voluntary sector, but brought to an unprecedented scale thanks to the advent of web 2.0. Still, the concept remains not well-defined and its impact is not yet well studied. The paper explores on a limited sets of cases what does it mean to collaboratively deliver online public services; what are the success factors based on the cases under study and what are the incentives for service providers (other than public administration), citizens as users and public administration. The authors propose an ostensive definition of the collaborative delivery of public services: collaborative public services are created and run by government, civil society or by private sector building on the re-use of government data or citizens data. Those services are focused on public goods delivery (e.g. health, education, public transport) and are meant to change the traditional government services by engaging in an open dialogue with public administration about the best way to deliver those services. The analysis of six case studies of innovative collaborative online public services suggests that the online collaborative public service delivery increases its quality with the users׳ growth contrary to the traditional offline service delivery. The study results indicate that the current developers interest lies in delivering complementary services to the government run services rather than substitutive services. The authors propose also the initial list of success factors, enabling conditions, and benefits for all main stakeholders (users, innovators and public administration).     

Transaction services and SME internationalization: The effect of home and host country bank relationships on international investment and growth

Building on the argument put forward by North and Wallis (1994) that the transaction sector enables economic growth by lowering the costs of transacting, we investigate how internationalizing firms’ host and home country bank relationships affect their international specific investments and growth. Banks provide payment, liquidity, and risk management services, which are essential to international business relationships, yet little is known about how banks affect international business relationships. In a sample of 255 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), we find that host and home country bank relationships affect the dependent variables differently. We contribute to the literature by explicating the role and effects of banks in international business relationships. Our findings have implications for understanding transaction services in international business as well as the choices made by their customers.     

农民工子女社区服务的行动研究——以成长向导计划为例

以行动研究的方法,探讨农民工子女社区服务模式。评估农民工子女在社区成长方面的需求,结合成长向导模式和合作服务机构的实践智慧,实践农民工子女社区服务,改进成长向导服务模式,通过不断反思获得农民工女子社区健康成长服务的最大效益。     

物流创新与增值服务

本文对物流创新与增值服务进行了概述,阐释了进行物流创新和追求增值服务的意义,以及企业如何在物流运作中实现创新和提供增值服务,论述了创新与增值的关系。     

Perceptions of the Ethical Work Climate and Covenantal Relationships

Employees perception of the existence of a covenantal relationship between themselves and their employer indicates that they believe there is a mutual commitment to shared values and the welfare of the other party in the relationship. Research suggests that these types of employment relationships have positive benefits for both employees and employers. There has been little research, however, on the factors that determine whether such relationships will develop and thrive.In this paper, we suggest that the organizations ethical work climate may be an important factor affecting employees perceptions about the nature of the relational contract between themselves and their employer. Specifically, we argue that work climates emphasizing benevolence and principle will be associated with covenantal relationships. Conversely, we believe that work climates emphasizing egoism will make it less likely that covenantal relationships will develop between an employer and employee.In order to test our hypotheses, we collected data from 194 employees of a large retail department store. The employees perceived their work climates in terms of principle (laws and professional codes) and benevolence, but to a lesser extent also believed that egoism (self interest) concerns characterized their climate. After controlling for demographic and job-related variables, we found (as expected) that measures of principled and benevolence climate were positively associated with covenantal relationships and that a measure of egoistic climate was negatively associated with covenantal relationships. In the final section of the paper, we discuss the implications of these findings for research and practice.